Kentucky Derby Futures Offer Sports Betting Risks And Rewards

The Kentucky Derby always poses sports betting risks, especially now, months before the running of America's most esteemed horse race. But there's also the chance for a robust reward if you can place a future book bet on the thoroughbred that will be draped in a garland of red roses in the Churchill Downs winners circle on the first Saturday in May.

Once called the "winter book," Kentucky Derby futures have been around for decades, offering prospective bettors huge odds at enormous danger. The concern is that your horse never makes it into the starting gate. If that happens, there's no refund; you lose. But if you can identify a good horse early in the process, say in January, February or March, you still might be able to get 100/1 or more on a 3-year-old that returns considerably less than that on Derby day.

That certainly was the case in 1988 when Winning Colors, who, largely because of her gender, was dismissed at future book odds of 100/1. She won the Run for the Roses, returning a mere $8.80 on Derby day.

Ill-fated Barbaro, who was denied the chance to demonstrate the full scope of his championship potential, wound up paying $14.20 on the day of the 2006 Derby, an attractive price given the ease (a 6 1/2-length triumph), of his victory, but a distant whinny from the 30/1 or so odds being offered in many Nevada racebooks and at sports betting sites around the globe at this time a year ago.

Long a staple of race books, the Kentucky Derby future book expanded nine years ago when the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), a pari-mutuel pool run out of Churchill Downs but offered elsewhere as well, joined the betting fray.

The most recent KDFW pool concluded after four days of betting on Feb. 11. Pool No. 2 will be conducted March 8-11 and the final pool will be run April 12-15. Only 23 individual horses were listed (as opposed to hundreds at most racebooks and sportsbook outlets) in the first pool so it's not surprising that the mutuel field (all 3-year-olds not among the 23 named thoroughbreds) closed as the favorite at odds of 5/2.

Nobiz Like Shobiz, winner of the Holy Bull Stakes in early February at Gulfstream Park, closed as the individual 8/1 second choice in a pool that drew about $500,000 in wagers. Street Sense, the winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and Hard Spun, who was bet down from a 20/1 morning line, each closed at 10/1. Ravel, who won the Sham Stakes, was next in line at 11/1.

What most separates the Kentucky Derby Future Wager from those posted in racebooks and at sportsbook outlets is the option of the field wager. Interestingly, in eight years of Pool 1 wagering, 184 individuals have been named but only 71 of those reached the Kentucky Derby starting gate and only five of them won. Three others, Charismatic, War Emblem and Funny Cide, were members of the Pool 1 mutual field and thus paid way less than they did on Derby Day, let alone their early hefty prices in casino (standard and virtual) future books.

So, given the smaller prices, should a bettor avoid the KDFW and stick with a casino based future book that lists more horses at larger odds?

Not necessarily.

Because the KDFW starts anew with its second and third pools, horses left out of the first pool and lumped into the mutual field sometimes emerge as separate entities in Pool 2 or Pool 3. That was the case with both Giacomo and Funny Cide, who each were offered at more than 50/1 in Pool 3 just three weeks before their successful Kentucky Derby runs.

The above Pool 3 example is in contradiction to the widely held (and mostly correct) view that the longer you dither, the shorter the price you'll get, especially on a horse that demonstrates potential, as was the case with both Giacomo and Funny Cide.

Thus the shrewd player will view the KDFW not as an alternative to more conventional future book wagers but as another opportunity. Rather than an "either-or" situation, the savvy bettor will study both options, looking for the best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby.